# Are house prices going to go up that much?



## Gruffs (Dec 10, 2007)

Lately, there has been a lot of threads about buying property and the ads and disads of buying over renting etc.

But, my question is. 

Is the price of the average family home and starter home (2-3 bed) really going to rise that much over the next 20-30 years?

I'm 29, 28 years ago, my parents bought their house for £25K, it's now worth circa £180Kish. It's increased in value by just over 7 times. That kind of rise cannot happen again for a few reasons.

1) Very few people would be able to afford a house. Where i live (near Cambridge) three bed houses range from £130K-£200K depending on village, plot size etc. If you earn the national average (£24K) salary, you are looking at 5-8 times that salary or if there is two of you (heaven forbid you should want children) 2.5-4 times. Coupled with a deposit of 20%-40%. It's just daft.
2) The houses that are built today will be falling down and not worth the cost of repair in 30 years time. I honestly don't know how these places are sold at the prices they are. 

No land (leasehold), No garden, No storage (the bedrooms are in the loft), 1 car parking space for a family home with two cars (both need to work for the mortgage remember) that's before the kids learn to drive. Already, the new builds around me are rammed full of parked cars and that's before the guy with his weekend toy adds another one. All because it has an En-suite. I'd rather not crap in my bedroom and have a bigger garden or a garage thanks.

So assuming the houses don't rise that much and it's more like a 10% increase in value, will that 10% be swallowed by maintenance costs, selling costs (should you sell) etc? given that in 30 years time, the stamp duty levels might be at 2% or CG tax is lowered or something equally governmental (should have another labour govt. by then too).

Does buying a house in (in this area anyway) actually stack up as a sound financial investment. Provided you save if you rent. 

Is that the point? By paying a mortgage, you actually are forced to save in bricks and mortar and if you rent, you have to avoid touching your savings and be disciplined enough to actually save in the first place? Is that what it now comes down to?

House prices cannot tumble surely, there are too many people with too much to lose. Similarly, people like me would get a bargain and then be too financially secure for the govt. to keep us working as long as possible. They cannot rise as no-one can afford them. Interest rates cannot go down as then the banks would be giving us money. They cannot go up as there will be a huge amount of repossesions. Is the property market stagnant?

Certainly to me, buying does not look financially sound until unfortunately, my grandparents or my parents die (i hope it never happens) and i inherit some money. Then i have a really nice deposit to go with my savings which brings the mortgage down and therefore the interest and we have a solid investment to make. Try saving a 40% deposit while renting. And we don't even have kids.

For me, buying looks like too much risk for not enough reward atm and i cannot justify 'getting on the ladder'. I think i'll keep renting and saving until i can afford the house i want to grow old in rather than risk being stuck in at a rung on the ladder that is just plain crap.

So many questions. ARRRRGGGHHHH


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## The Cueball (Feb 8, 2007)

Gruffs said:


> Is the price of the average family home and starter home (2-3 bed) really going to rise that much over the next 20-30 years?
> 
> I'm 29, 28 years ago, my parents bought their house for £25K, it's now worth circa £180Kish. It's increased in value by just over 7 times. That kind of rise cannot happen again for a few reasons.
> 
> ...


My, what a big post!! :lol:

I have just picked up on a few things:

You can bet when your parents bought their house, they didn't think the price would rise that much, it has done in the past, and it will continue to do so... IMO

My Gran paid £1500 for her house..... they both had to work 2 jobs to afford it, back in the day!

What are you doing all this 'saving' for??? why don't you just enjoy your life, instead of saving for the future that is not a guarantee???

On a sadder note, your grandparents and parents WILL die... it's the only thing certain with life, so get used to it, and share some good times....

I think there are too many people desperate to 'own' a house, to me; it's a load of b0llo0x... nowhere else is there such pressure to 'own' a home....

I do think that the UK is in grave danger of people only being able to afford to work and stay somewhere....our cost of living is getting way too expensive - just for basics like petrol, heat and light.....

Maybe our overlords don't quite realise that putting the price of petrol up effects the cost of everything... from haulage companies to carrots in the supermarket.....

In short, I am putting some money away for my 50th year trip, and my plans to shuffle off this world (if I last that long), but I am not wasting my time with houses, repairs and neighbours I don't like and what the bankers / government / greedy people are going to do with my bricks!!

:thumb:


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## DiscoDriver (Oct 27, 2009)

I think the cost of housing will continue to rise as the total number of households in the country increases (through divorce/separation and uncontrolled immigration) thus continuing to stoke demand. I wouldn't be surprised if the nature of the homes changes somewhat with an increasing prevalence of apartments over houses and perhaps smaller dwellings as land becomes increasing scarce. I believe houses, particularly detached housing, will become comparatively more expensive and desirable as a result.


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## big ben (Aug 25, 2009)

its hard to believe but everything will go up...

House prices
Electricity
Water
Gas definately
Council tax

Its a nightmare, there is no good way around it, either way your skint getting shafted by someone :devil:


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## sayloday (Oct 5, 2008)

Don't think that house prices will rise by so much again because peoples pay will not rise by so much. 

There are only going to be a limited number of people who can afford homes above £500,000.

Given that most people in a house sale/purchase will be in a chain and won't need to have the full amount of money in their account for the house. 

The banks are valuing houses at lower prices compared to estate agents. As the banks control the mortgages, hopefully prices will not rise by ridiculous amounts, then 1st time buyers maybe able to get a foot in the door.


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## kennym999 (Jul 12, 2009)

I dont think prices are going up by that much and in some places not at all. Houses have to sell for prices to rise. Many houses round my way have been on for 2 to 3 years. Mine has been on 2 years and still no joy.


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## Gruffs (Dec 10, 2007)

The Cueball said:


> My, what a big post!! :lol:
> 
> I have just picked up on a few things:
> 
> ...


So, for that to work, my kids will be earning £100K+ and buying houses £500K+? The national average salary (wage) will not support that imo.



> What are you doing all this 'saving' for??? why don't you just enjoy your life, instead of saving for the future that is not a guarantee???


We enjoy ourselves, don't get me wrong. but i'm saving to give my future children the help that i WILL get form my folks when they die. If i don't all the value built up by my family in property falls back into the market as no-one my age with be worth anything......................:speechles. The money goes back int the govt. coffers via tax on sales and out of the personal pockets of the population. Suddenly, it all makes sense.



> On a sadder note, your grandparents and parents WILL die... it's the only thing certain with life, so get used to it, and share some good times....


I'm used to death, don't worry. I'd just rather it not happen. I'm not afraid of my family dying. I got called 'cold' by the rest of my family when my family members. I would rather celebrate the fact they were here at all than mourn the fact that they are gone. Just seems a bit pointless. I miss my friends and family that have passed but it's not with sadness that i remember them.



> I think there are too many people desperate to 'own' a house, to me; it's a load of b0llo0x... nowhere else is there such pressure to 'own' a home....


I agree, the only reason would be to secure some value for my offspring. As it will be more difficult for them than me. In which case, i may as well leave them a bank account in their name that they never knew about and they won't get taxed on when i die.



> I do think that the UK is in grave danger of people only being able to afford to work and stay somewhere....our cost of living is getting way too expensive - just for basics like petrol, heat and light.....
> 
> Maybe our overlords don't quite realise that putting the price of petrol up effects the cost of everything... from haulage companies to carrots in the supermarket.....


Not only this, i don't think they look outside the M25. London is gridlocked but it has a fantastic PT system. You don't need a car in London so they see it as pointless.

Cambridge to some extent is similar, it has good PT system within the City but outside, it's dire. A car is a necessity to commute into the city.



> In short, I am putting some money away for my 50th year trip, and my plans to shuffle off this world (if I last that long), but I am not wasting my time with houses, repairs and neighbours I don't like and what the bankers / government / greedy people are going to do with my bricks!!


I think you'll last long past 50, no problem.

:thumb:


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## Stumper (Apr 5, 2009)

I think that houseprices will always generally move in an upwards direction.
There will be drops in the market like over the past couple of years, but generally they will always increase.

What you say about new build houses is pretty much the same line of thinking as I have, hence the reason we avoided new-builds and went for an older house.
I think that in the next 10-20 years, properties built in the past 10 or so years will start to show their age badly. Older houses with gardens, garages and off street parking will become more sought after as these things are all missing from newer builds these days.

IMHO owning is worth the hassle of saving up a deposit etc. Why pay someone £900 a month towards their mortgage when you can pay it towards your own and have something to show for it at the end of the term?


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## The Cueball (Feb 8, 2007)

Gruffs said:


> So, for that to work, my kids will be earning £100K+ and buying houses £500K+? The national average salary (wage) will not support that imo.
> 
> We enjoy ourselves, don't get me wrong. but i'm saving to give my future children the help that i WILL get form my folks when they die. If i don't all the value built up by my family in property falls back into the market as no-one my age with be worth anything......................:speechles. The money goes back int the govt. coffers via tax on sales and out of the personal pockets of the population. Suddenly, it all makes sense.
> 
> ...


Maybe not quite those figures, but everything is on a cycle.... so for house prices not to increase over time, something different is going to have to happen... and lets face it, no one likes change!

Death is a very important part of life...part of the reason this country is failing is that we have people playing god and keeping people alive that, by rights, should be dead....jeez we put dogs down because they are suffering, but seem keen to keep humans alive, but not 'living' (IMO, and not to go off topic too much)

I think the bank idea in their name is good idea...

To get a good PT system, we would need to spend millions, so taxes would go up... blah blah... don't think it will ever happen for smaller towns etc..

I am going for 55 MAXIMUM!!! :lol: and by that time, I want the cheque for my funeral to bounce......

:thumb:


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## Gruffs (Dec 10, 2007)

The Cueball said:


> Maybe not quite those figures, but everything is on a cycle.... so for house prices not to increase over time, something different is going to have to happen... and lets face it, no one likes change!


I suppose



> *Death is a very important part of life...part of the reason this country is failing is that we have people playing god and keeping people alive that, by rights, should be dead....jeez we put dogs down because they are suffering, but seem keen to keep humans alive, but not 'living' (IMO, and not to go off topic too much) *


I definately agree with this one. Modern medicine one of the reasons we have an aging population too that we have to support through their later years. It's still a financial burden so not that OT.


> To get a good PT system, we would need to spend millions, so taxes would go up... blah blah... don't think it will ever happen for smaller towns etc..


That's quite apt for Cambridge actually. They have just spent £116M on a guided busway that they were told would not work, that people opposed and they put it in anyway. Why? Because they could only get money from the Govt. for this scheme. Rather than put in the best solution for the area. It's all irrelevant anyway. The first night it is open, the Pikeys will drive a car up it and burn it out. Then to re-coup the outlay, there will be a congestion charge. The P&R will change from a pay to ride system to a pay to park system to stop people cycling in. It's not about what is best for the area, it's about how much money can be made or saved.



> I am going for 55 MAXIMUM!!! :lol: and by that time, I want the cheque for my funeral to bounce......


Thanks for not being a financial burden. Be sure to leave us enough for a damn good wake!


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## Deanoecosse (Mar 15, 2007)

Gruffs said:


> Is the price of the average family home and starter home (2-3 bed) really going to rise that much over the next 20-30 years?
> 
> I'm 29, 28 years ago, my parents bought their house for £25K, it's now worth circa £180Kish. It's increased in value by just over 7 times. That kind of rise cannot happen again for a few reasons.
> So assuming the houses don't rise that much and it's more like a 10% increase in value, will that 10% be swallowed by maintenance costs, selling costs (should you sell) etc? given that in 30 years time, the stamp duty levels might be at 2% or CG tax is lowered or something equally governmental (should have another labour govt. by then too).


It's all relative tho, 28 years ago when your parents bought their house, £25k would have seemed like a fair chunk of money in those days, compared to your parents salary, whereas today £28k is only the price of a nice family saloon car. Before your parents, Your grandparents home could probably have been bought for under £2k which today would only buy you a quarter of a tub of Zymol Vintage!
Nowadays although £180k may "sound" like a lot of money, its not really as Salaries have increased over that time, so there's no danger that house prices will only increase by 10% over the next 30 years.More likely the average house will be around the £500k mark at least


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## Deanoecosse (Mar 15, 2007)

The Cueball said:


> I am going for 55 MAXIMUM!!! :lol: and by that time, I want the cheque for my funeral to bounce......:


drop the Jag off at my house on the eve of your 56th birthday then before you go:thumb:


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## JB052 (Mar 22, 2008)

According to our local estate agents, they think prices will drop again this year.


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## The Cueball (Feb 8, 2007)

Deanoecosse said:


> drop the Jag off at my house on the eve of your 56th birthday then before you go:thumb:


:lol:

IF it survives that long, it's a deal!

:thumb:


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## Adam D (Nov 3, 2009)

House prices will continue to rise, but there will be peaks and troughs.

Hard to say if we will see the 7 fold increase quoted previously.

One thing I agree with is that what is tending to happen is that our discretionary incomes are getting squeezed. We are having to pay more for essential energy and services, so we end up with less money in our pocket, which will dampen demand.

Agree with Cueball about the stupid cost of healthcare in the Western world. I read somewhere (not sure about the exact figures) that 75% of your total life healthcare bill is spent on you in your last 3 years of life.

This is ridiculous and the only people who are making money out of this are the private health care insurers and providers themselves.


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## Gruffs (Dec 10, 2007)

Adam D said:


> House prices will continue to rise, but there will be peaks and troughs.
> 
> Hard to say if we will see the 7 fold increase quoted previously.
> 
> ...


They only charge you if you (or your children) have anything left to pay with. If you have nothing, you get it for nowt.

So, if you have anything, make sure you die young and fast seems to be the message.


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## chillly (Jun 25, 2009)

Cant see it going up much. No one has money to buy now. Then again they might give you a 60 year mortgage, and to top that you will be able to pass the debt on to your kids kids kids. Greed yet again has Stressed everyone to the max along with their credit cards. 3 neices and 2 nephews cant afford to buy houses now. Guess what mums and dads will have no choice but to extend their mortgages to help the children to get on the ladder. But maybe the government may start to build council houses again as we know its a option but not as much profit. My 2p


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## Adam D (Nov 3, 2009)

Gruffs said:


> They only charge you if you (or your children) have anything left to pay with. If you have nothing, you get it for nowt.
> 
> So, if you have anything, make sure you die young and fast seems to be the message.


If you (or your children) can't pay for it then the Government pay for it out of taxation, so we are all paying for it.


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## Renmure (Jan 18, 2007)

I think house prices will continue to rise steadily, albeit with the usual cyclical variations. In essence it is a simple case of supply and demand. The main difference will be that it will be harder for 1st time buyers to effectively "qualify" for a mortgage but that is no bad thing.

Bear in mind that only 20-25 or so years ago a house buyer would have to have been a Building Society Member with a history of saving prudently before they would have even applied to their Society for a Mortgage. I appreciate this is a throwback to the Credit Crunch but is only a fairly recent fad for potential house buyers to expect to be able to shop around for a mortgage and choose from a bunch of lenders all falling over themselves to lend.


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## DE 1981 (Aug 17, 2007)

House prices will rise imo although not to levels weve seen in the last decade, i think the recent slump will undoubtedly result in lenders being a lot more strict on lending conditions unlike they were previously which ultimately has contributed to the current situation.

Areas of the country will always out perform others, Aberdeen for example prices are still strong compared to others parts of the country great if you relocating elsewhere but a bit annoying if your buying, we looked at a new build Wimpey house which was around £275K here while the exact same house was only £180k in Fife.

Gav


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## dale205mills (Oct 26, 2006)

I brought my first house house this time last year and it was the best time as no one wanted to buy property at that time or get there money back from the banks, I was allso lucky I was a cash buyer so I was onto a winner to start with, alot of the problem is with the right to buy thing as alot of people brought houses from the council and the council nerver built houses to replace them, meaning people with money could get into the buy to let. 

My dad started off in the buy to let useing his money from being in service in the second golf war, He paid two mortgage's off and went onto buy four houses to let and he is at the stages off buying two more. I have looked into buying some more property but I am not a DIY person to look after my buy to lets, which means I would'nt make as much money due to paying someone else to look after my property's. I have gone with black horse in stocks, shares, bonds and other bits and bobs.

I am lucky that things are on a rise in a big way and it gives me a income every month and things will only get better as every thing is at its lowest, Now I no people will say I shouldnt be doing this with my money, but this is the only way to stop my money loseing its value if it was sat in the bank doing nothing, lucky for me I am only 25 and looking for a long term investment and not just to make a quick pound right now and risk loseing my money.


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## Frothey (Apr 30, 2007)

Gruffs said:


> So, for that to work, my kids will be earning £100K+ and buying houses £500K+? The national average salary (wage) will not support that imo.


1970 the average wage was £1500 per year, now its £21k - a 14x increase in 40 years, average house was £5k compared to £170k or so (work that one out :doublesho ), so a 5x increase in wage and a 2.5x house price rise in the next 20 years isn't that far out.


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## SteveOC (May 26, 2007)

Regardless of whether house prices rise or not, is renting really viable as anything more than a stopgap?
What I don't get about the whole renting argument is what happens after retirement when you haven't paid off a mortgage, and don't own a home, but are living on a pension and still have to pay rent at the market rate which presumably increases over time?

As to relying on inheriting property, a number of folks have alluded to the increasing likelihood of elderly relatives having to realise assets to pay for ongoing medical care rather than dying and leaving much of a legacy behind.
Then again I understand the rules on this differ around the UK.

Steve O.


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## kh904 (Dec 18, 2006)

graeme_t said:


> I think that houseprices will always generally move in an upwards direction.
> There will be drops in the market like over the past couple of years, but generally they will always increase.
> 
> What you say about new build houses is pretty much the same line of thinking as I have, hence the reason we avoided new-builds and went for an older house.
> I think that in the next 10-20 years, properties built in the past 10 or so years will start to show their age badly. Older houses with gardens, garages and off street parking will become more sought after as these things are all missing from newer builds these days.


Totally agree. I'm currently looking for my first property and won't consider anything without off-street parking!
I think councils should demand from property developers to include some form of off-street parking for new builds!!! 
The density of housing in some areas is too high. This leads to other problems down the line such as anti-social behaviour.


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## Avanti (Jan 17, 2006)

kh904 said:


> Totally agree. I'm currently looking for my first property and won't consider anything without off-street parking!
> I think councils should demand from property developers to include some form of off-street parking for new builds!!!
> The density of housing in some areas is too high. This leads to other problems down the line such as anti-social behaviour.


Trouble is land is pricey so parking space will add to the cost, front garages are good if you can get a decent size car inside.


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## Stumper (Apr 5, 2009)

kh904 said:


> I think councils should demand from property developers to include some form of off-street parking for new builds!!!


They do now in London for new builds!


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## lofty (Jun 19, 2007)

kh904 said:


> Totally agree. I'm currently looking for my first property and won't consider anything without off-street parking!
> I think councils should demand from property developers to include some form of off-street parking for new builds!!!
> The density of housing in some areas is too high. This leads to other problems down the line such as anti-social behaviour.


I think it is more the other way around,councils are trying to limit parking so that we all ditch our cars and get the bus

House prices will always rise over the long term,we live on a small island with an ever growing population with rising standards of living(usually).
I bought 2 flats in 1988 when I was 20 for £15K each they are now worth about £100k each(wish I had kept them).My mam bought her house in 1971 for £4000,its worth about £175k now,but at the time it was a lot of money.
I would guess that in 10 years time prices will have risen by at least 50%


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## Mirror Finish Details (Aug 21, 2008)

Has been a roller coaster recently, paid £68k for my house in Gatley Cheshire in 1997 and was valued at £290k in early 2007, now worth about £225k. I am holding out for £300k as Asian families love the Gatley/Cheadle area and pay cash. Rent it out to my sister as I live in the new wifes house in Middlwich Cheshire that is bigger but worth much less, so it is all down to areas.


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## Neil_S (Oct 26, 2005)

As a long term investment, unquestionably a good decision IMHO.

In the short term, anyone got a crystal ball? I think alot of the recent rises have been down to availability of credit at historically low rates, but should inflation kick off and the inevitable rise in interest rates to try and keep control, who knows?

Certainly in the market place near me, not much seems to be shifting that quickly, a friend is currently buying and the couple he is buying from said they are taking a 5k loss on the property and they bought it in 2005.


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## johnsastra16v (Oct 7, 2007)

heres just my thought on this.

last year at 23 years old, me and my fiance (now wife) bought our first property together.
we had a 15k cash deposit. both in full time work also.

at the start we were looking at houses in the 180k mark, but was finding it very difficult to find a mortgage.

to be able to get our current mortgage, we needed a further 10k cash deposit which came kindly from my inlaws.

without their help, we would never been able to get on the property ladder at the ages we have. the same i think goes for others, its almost impossible for young buyers to get on the ladder without some finnancial help/carrying from parents or relatives. but then i hear english friends and other young people i know, and they tell me they pay their parent srent to live in their house!? albeit probably a small amount, but WTF??? lmoa - another way to have less money to get saving

when buying a house too,the key imo (within reason) is to buy the ****test house in the best area.

we bought our 3 bedroom house for 152k, spent arounf 25-30k on fixing it, extending it and furnishing it.

we now have a fully finished house, in a great area of birmingham (Harborne if any of you brummies know), and is now valued at £195k.
thats 1 year weve owned it!

the house wasnt everything i wanted, as i wanted a garage and some other minor things. but now were able to look at selling our house in the next few years at a profit, which will no doubt help us when it comes to finding a better house.

i just think some people are expecting too much, and compromises in one way or another have to be made when youre trying to get on the ladder.


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## roscopervis (Aug 22, 2006)

Long term house prices will rise as there are not enough new houses built to satisfy the future demand. There will be a shortage of houses. That means that they are probably gonna get proportionately more expensive in the next 30 years.


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