# Electric cars, we now have no choice. Or do we?



## Soul boy 68 (Sep 8, 2013)

I'd like to start a debate on the future of motoring, especially after the Governments announcement on a ban of new car sales of petrol and diesel cars from 2030. So what impact do you think it will have on you, your family or business, especially if you rely on your car or van. do you cover a lot of miles per week? live in a rural location and depend on your car? the charging infrastructure? No doubt there will be lots to debate on here. Here is my two pence worth. I have to ask how future Governments are going to replace the estimated £36 billion of tax revenues currently paid by the motorist via fuel duty? 

I'm not convinced this Governments obsession with electric cars and it could be doomed to fail. We need an estimated 28 million charging points, the cost and logistics to get a range of well under 200 miles make it totally unfeasible. The cost of changing to an EV is beyond most people as their current petrol or diesel car will be worthless come trade in. Now lets have your say on how you feel about all this.


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## Darlofan (Nov 24, 2010)

Stop sales in 2030(if it happens) that gives 10-15yrs of decent ice cars still available which will see me to 75.So I should be ok.
Here and now, work gets back to normal I'm doing hundreds of miles a week/sometimes daily, in rural N Wales so not a chance of charging whilst out. Plus caravanning, throws another spanner in there!
Saying that battery tech etc seems to be improving each year so where we'll be in 5yrs time could be totally different to today. Cost is next factor, far too expensive for me to even think about now.


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## andy665 (Nov 1, 2005)

Interesting to hear self-proclaimed EV guru Robert Llewellyn on the radio this morning saying that within 2 years EV s will be achieving cost parity with ICE - yeah riht, only way that will happen is if ICE prices are hiked up to the price of EV

EV is coming but government has to be more proactive - new street lighting, where appropriate should have to include charging points, every new home should be pre-wired for a charging box or better still have a wallbox installed, every new car park should have to have a % of spaces with charging points etc 

Banning sales of ICE without PHEV ability from 2030 makes perfect sense, banning sales of all ICE vehicles from 2035 I don't think will happen

And still nobody is talking about the elephant in the room - HGVs, commercial vehicles, shipping, buses / coaches, diesel trains, aircraft - what about their means of propulsion and the current emissions they emit. And then there is industry and its energy usage, car emissions is a small overall contributor but seems to be the primary target - why, well I know why - its the soft target 

I am all for the switch to more environmentally friendly means of transport (seriously considering EV for my OHs next car) but there needs to be a more balanced approach to emissions in its entirety rather than this politically driven obsession with car emissions alone


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

Cars that should in my opinion be 18 to 20K are 30K.

As a lithium battery user over the time I have been using them the capacity hasn't increased nor has the power output in any kind of step change. Someone needs to get a move on here.

You could take the opinion that the battery is like purchasing all of the petrol in one payment but that doesn't take into account charging costs.

The initial incentive of giving free or very low cost charging is going to disappear with an obvious percentage going to the treasury.

F1 cars have been very good at cutting emissions. Maserati has produced an ICE using the same technology. Honda used the pre chamber ignition in 1970. It allows for very lean running.


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## Stoner (Jun 25, 2010)

I will have to comply at some point but at the moment I will stick with petrol. If the government does ban them for new sales, it'll be interesting to see what happens to the price on the second-hand market...

I know that electric cars are getting better but until you can drive them similar to petrol (ie 1000 miles with only one fuel stop taking less than 15 minutes), I can't embrace them. For example, I am driving to Austria in February at 950 miles each way. The stops to recharge the batteries would kill that trip and make it impossible unless I went for a hybrid, but I assume they will also be banned?

Not to mention the cost of buying them...


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## pt1 (Feb 8, 2014)

At the minute I see a future for hybrids but i can't see a full country driving electric vehicles due to the amount of charging points needed and the amount of time it takes to charge. In the future you may get a 1000 mile+ full charges which would make a big difference, who knows


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## JoeyJoeJo (Jan 3, 2014)

I'm also interested in the other side of the lifecycle. Cars have always had a trickle down effect with many many people driving around in 10, 20, 30 year old cars through choice or economic reasons, there's very little info on what EV cars will look like after those periods, what state will batteries be? Will motors need rebuilds or scrapping? Will those less well off be priced out the market and forced to take the EV bus?


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## Rappy (Oct 2, 2020)

Still driving both diesel & petrol & will continue :thumb:

For me it's simple. No longer buying a new car after 2030.

SoulBoy68, maybe worth adding the cars you must drive before EV. Based on ownership only.

Having owned close to 50 cars, I do have a top 5


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## Rob_Quads (Jul 17, 2006)

We are a long long way from having the infrastructure for charging. Yes for those of us that are luck to have drives etc its all possible but what about the rows and rows of houses where its all on street parking. There is currently no solution to this. You can't say charge it when your out as you often drive to work, drive home, drive to work, drive home. 

I also think the costs need to come massively down. Yes there are lots of claims about them costing similar once you take into petrol into account but its comparing like with like and most of the electric cars have great tech & performance and so are compared with the mid-range equivalents i.e. in the golf but what about all those people who buy the sub 10K car. They don't cover the millage so electric won't take them much. 

I get the push to hybrid - I think that's a good move and for more it will be easy enough. Getting rid of ICE totally I think we are a long way off.


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## RD55 DUN (Dec 30, 2008)

As mentioned above, there needs to be a huge increase in the availability of charging points throughout the country, especially in more rural areas.

The capacity of batteries and charge times will no doubt improve over time, which will make a daily driver, weekend family.

Myself, i was against electric cars, however the performance which can be obtained by them is impressive, and would consider an electric/hybrid for my next car.


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## Kerr (Mar 27, 2012)

Given the costs of Coronavirus I can see the massive costs of the infrastructure required being delayed. I can't see the end of new ICE cars by 2030. I'm surprised they brought the date forward with all that is going on. 

The two main reasons I see for choosing electric cars is the environmental impact and running costs. However, the environmental impact of electric cars is said to be little better than ICE cars over their lifespan. 

Secondly the government know they will be losing a fortune on fuel duty if everyone buys electric. They are already reportedly looking to charge all motorists by mileage. 

People who plan to buy electric due to the cost of cheap electricity will soon find that the cheapness is replaced by other taxes to make up for the shortfall.


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## AndyN01 (Feb 16, 2016)

Interesting opportunity for discussion - thanks.

I run an 18 year old Rover 75 diesel tourer (aka estate). It's effectively worthless as far as trade in is concerned but does everything I need it to while being cosseted in leather and walnut on every journey. It does 600+ miles to a tank.

I simply do not have the income/resources to either buy or PCP or whatever a "new" electric (or indeed any sort of) car. I have no idea what I will replace the Rover with when the time comes.

Family are 180-200 miles away in the North East.

We have Quizzie, our lab/retriever cross, so any car has to be big enough to take her plus everything we need to visit family for a few days.

Electric with a range of 200 miles is useless unless it can be fully charged in about 10 minutes at a charging station - on street parking rules out plug it in when we arrive. Obviously we like to go out and visit places with the family which isn't going to happen with a flat battery. And how much time are we going to "waste" waiting for it to charge up so we can get home?

I'm thinking/hoping there will be 2 options available:

Electric for folks who do shorter trips and have charging available at home - commuters maybe; and hydrogen for those who do longer trips including the haulage industry & deliveries.

The country runs on it's road network. I cannot see Public Transport realistically doing much to change that. Perhaps in big cities with big "Park and Ride" centres on the outskirts.

However, how many folks will actually need to travel to work? Many, many firms are now realising that they don't need office space etc. Yes there are industries that require folks to go to them but there's a lot that don't.

The Govt. will have to have taxation of some sort to fill the coffers. Charge per mile will be easy because the new cars will be/are already equipped with GPS etc. so logging how far it's been will be simple. It might even be a mandatory "black box" for those cars not OEM equipped.

It would be nice to think that the revenue raised would be spent on the infrastructure - but I very much doubt that will happen.

I think the next few years will be fascinating to see what actually happens.

Will electric be the new VHS, or the new Betamax? - If you haven't a clue what I'm talking about it's time for Google :lol:

Andy


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## Berylburton (Sep 14, 2013)

I have a Kia e-Niro as well as a Porsche Boxster.
The Kia has a range in excess of 230 miles, quoted mileage is 282miles, a good few people have exceeded this when doing town type driving in warmish weather. I dont do a lot of miles at the moment due to the various lockdowns. My longest journey during the summer was 203 miles there and back, had plenty of charge left when I got home. 
I can charge at home and a full charge cost about £5-7 on the tariff I have with Octopus Energy. Within a 10 mile radius of where I live there are 8 FREE chargers. One at the gym I am a member of with a limit of 4 hours stay time, which is about 50% Battery charge on the 7KwH chargers they have there.
The performance is sport mode of the car is quite amazing especially from low speeds to 50-60 mph. It is a fabulous car. I do not regret for one second buying it. My Porsche is still fabulous but is a weekend plaything and is perfect for that.


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## Mikesphotaes (Jul 24, 2016)

I don't buy new cars, so won't affect me!


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## GSD (Feb 6, 2011)

Oh I’m sure in one way or another it will affect all of us.


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## bigcarpchaser (May 6, 2008)

Having just sold Boris the C63 due to WFH and not driving it, I’ve been seriously considering an EV. To be fair, one would suit 90% of the journeys the wife and I do and we have her Ateca for longer ones as and when, however, let’s take a Corsa as an example as a runaround. Corsa e is what, £30k? For a Corsa.
Petrol equivalent is £5k cheaper. That’s a shedload of petrol. 
A secondhand Polo or Golf makes even more sense from a financial perspective. You definitely have to spend money to be green so until the price difference is equalised or bettered then really, what’s the point?
I’m not taking about from an environment point of view, this is purely financial. 
If it were up to me and work was a bit more consistent then I’d probably consider a Polestar 2 but everything else electric looks a bit meh although there will probably be some nicer looking vehicles coming though over the next couple of years.
Meanwhile, I’m looking on autotrader on a daily basis trying to find a sensible but nice car that’ll get the thumbs up from the financial controller lol.


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## percymon (Jun 27, 2007)

Having had a full electric car for over 2 years, it was great for my commute (26 miles each way) but longer journeys outside the motorway network were always a military operation in terms of planning (plan A and plan B in case chargers weren't available). The charge network has expanded but so have electric sales, so probably no better in reality. Battery range has improved over time too, at the expense of vehicle weight lugging it all around.

The prices are disproportionate to dino fuels vehicles - yes you buy batteries, management systems and motor(s) but you're not purchasing an engine, exhaust etc.

The increase in hybrids can be seen as a tax dodge or a practical solution - it doesn't rely on a new infrastructure and does reduce emissions (or at least improve real world mpg).

The bigger issue for me is the size of vehicles - yes they are safer than 30 years ago, but none of them offer any more interior cabin or luggage capacity over their equivalents of the 80s (in fact a BMW 3 series E30 is probably better than the current model). Larger and heavier - do we really need to build , in particular, family cars that barely fit parking spaces? There are efficiences to be had with a rethink and resetting the marketing departments.


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## muzzer (Feb 13, 2011)

Expect a massive hike in the cost of petrol and diesel in 2030 then. Oh and road pricing to come in before that.
They will have to do both, there is no way they can make up for the hole in the coffers without implementing both.


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## Darlofan (Nov 24, 2010)

Kerr said:


> They are already reportedly looking to charge all motorists by mileage. .


Obviously once electric takes over, charges will be scrapped. :lol:


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## grunty-motor (Aug 11, 2016)

Berylburton said:


> I have a Kia e-Niro as well as a Porsche Boxster.
> The Kia has a range in excess of 230 miles, quoted mileage is 282miles, a good few people have exceeded this when doing town type driving in warmish weather. I dont do a lot of miles at the moment due to the various lockdowns. My longest journey during the summer was 203 miles there and back, had plenty of charge left when I got home.
> 
> .....
> ...


This is kinda where my head is going - EV for wife's daily (currently a petrol Mazda) and Petrol for me for fun/larger family duties (towing the 'van).

Full EV for both of us??? Just cant see it without being forced into it (purchase cost/tax/fuel/etc price hikes on Petrol)


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## Rob_Quads (Jul 17, 2006)

Kerr said:


> People who plan to buy electric due to the cost of cheap electricity will soon find that the cheapness is replaced by other taxes to make up for the shortfall.


This is one of the key points that lots of people ignore. Fuel does not cost much, taxes cost. If we paid for just fuel then there wouldn't be much difference between fuel and electric.

The government will charge per mile which will then increase the cost removing any "savings" from using electric.


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## AndyN01 (Feb 16, 2016)

IMHO price hikes - particularly on diesel - will have to be very carefully managed because the vast majority of "stuff" is transported by diesel powered machinery.

The owners of said machinery will, in all probability and for (financial) survival, simply pass on the price hike to the consumer. This, in turn, may well hike inflation which I don't think is the way the Govt. want to go. Or maybe they're only thinking in 5 year cycles and what sounds good today can/will be "adjusted" as the the random, pulled out of hat, date gets closer .

Just a thought - I may well be proved wrong, or right :lol:

Andy.


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## RS3 (Mar 5, 2018)

I don't believe these targets are achievable simply because we do not have the electrical capacity to convert fully to electric. They are only looking at increasing green energy at the moment which will not suffice.
Unless nuclear plant(s) are built within the next 9 years (I'm sure they take closer to 20 years from conception), it ain't gonna happen.


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

There is some real world tests done on hybrids and unfortunately they pull up a long way short of what the manufacturers have claimed for mpg.

Some might recall a top gear that had a hybrid managing about 25mpg when pushed to its limits.

As the batteries are made of lots and lots of small cells they can be refurbished.

I have used brushless motors and when correctly sized for the application will last a very long time.


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## cangri (Feb 25, 2011)

World will go full electric. And then costs will be the same as now.


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

At present motorists add about £40 billion to the treasury coffers. Of that maybe 25% to 30% is spent on the roads.

Just how does the government raise the other 70% to 75% tax that it spends on other things?

No doubt VED will be applied to all cars again and pay per mile is pretty certain.


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## ollienoclue (Jan 30, 2017)

We could make an electric only car fleet work here. Just install two chargers in the car port and we are golden but for lot of people it won't work unless charging points are built into the kerb or something in streets?

I have no issue with a car that can only go 200 miles without recharging, I can't remember driving that far without stopping for a long time.

I think a lot of people will be doing more working from home anyway in future.

The main issue is that the government have also said all new build houses should no longer be using oil or gas central heating systems. This means a lot of air (or ground) source heat pumps will be going in and to get those to heat a house you need to run the system for hours at a time. This means there will be a big big electric load to the grid long before many more EV's are sold.

Liquid fuels will continue for decades because no one has worked out how to power heavy machinery or aircraft yet. I guess it will be biodiesel or HVO or something which means our oil boiler will be well catered for as well.

The loss of tax on road fuels may well be matched by people simply no longer commuting to work and I can't remember the last time I actually entered a shop either. That said, the 2-30 billion is only a small slice of the tax take so they can soon work out other ways of finding that without having to resort to road charging or that BS. I'd go after corporations, particularly the multinationals some more.

At present the electrical grid runs basically at half load from about 8pm until 6am, with about 50GW of peak capacity but barely 20GW of demand at night. You could charge a lot of cars on that but again none of the above has been factored in. Wind and tidal power could do a lot of the heavy lifting but the published capacity factors of wind is pretty hideous and the hardware has a design life of less than 20 years...

Get Hinkely C going, then start Sizewell C and then on to Hinkley D.


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## Alex_225 (Feb 7, 2008)

Great topic of discussion and I'm sure for many of us car fans there's lots of opinions and just as many questions.

Apologies if these points have already been made but here's a few questions from my perspective......

*Infrastructure* - Where will all of these EVs be charged? I'm fortunate enough to have a driveway and a charging point could be installed but a huge percentage of drivers don't. Often it's not feasible for people who park on the road to guarantee a parking space near their home let alone being able to plug a car in. That's not to take into account whether the national grid can supply that extra demand.

*Range* - It seems that other than the really high end EVs they simply don't offer a range that for some albeit a minority really need. I appreciate that there are stats which indicate that many journeys are short ones but for those of us who have to do 200+ miles at a time, 'average' EVs aren't cutting it. You would hope with another ten years development that will change though.

*Cost* - EVs are expensive, even average models that fit into categories that your normal hatch backs would fulfil are pricey. Again will this change in time as the technology will be more commonplace? Hopefully.

*Are second hand EVs worth it?* - The reality is I won't be looking to buy a brand new EV when the time comes for my day to day car to be electric. I can go buy an 8 year old ICE car and know it has years of life left in it. Can the same be said of an EV? Will it cost thousands to replace tired batteries? I'm basing this on something like a Nissan Leaf which isn't particularly usable once the battery range is 50-60 miles.

*Are they really green?* - One thing that I have read in various place is the question of how green EV's really are. It seems that some of those smug EV owners today are a bit naïve as to the actual carbon footprint of their cars, let alone the obtaining of the lithium required for the batteries.

*Tax?* - Obviously one of the key selling points of 'green' cars has been low tax or tax free. The irony being that you can go do 20k in a low emissions cars, churn up the road and yet the guy paying the £500 a year tax doing 500 miles a year covers the cost. Where is that money going to come from? Mileage I'd hope or perhaps on the electricity they consume as they'll all be hooked up to the internet and trackable so you just get a tax invoice automatically?

So yeah, I have loads of questions and thoughts. I do around 11-12k a year but out of the 900 or so miles I do in a month, that's made up of four return journeys. I pick up my daughter and come home so 120 miles each way. I can't afford to be stopping for a 30 minute charge, I want to go there and come home. My S Class diesel can do 800 miles or more to a tank but even if it couldn't, it would take me 5 minutes to brim the tank.

You asleep yet? :lol::lol::lol:


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## Darlofan (Nov 24, 2010)

Kerr said:


> Given the costs of Coronavirus I can see the massive costs of the infrastructure required being delayed. I can't see the end of new ICE cars by 2030. I'm surprised they brought the date forward with all that is going on.
> 
> The two main reasons I see for choosing electric cars is the environmental impact and running costs. However, the environmental impact of electric cars is said to be little better than ICE cars over their lifespan.
> 
> ...





Alex_225 said:


> Great topic of discussion and I'm sure for many of us car fans there's lots of opinions and just as many questions.
> 
> Apologies if these points have already been made but here's a few questions from my perspective......
> 
> ...


In reply to your are they that green point. Everything is green until 
a-scientists do new research and find out its not as first thought. 
b-The government lose tax because majority have swapped to it.

Anyway, we don't need to worry as 10yrs time roads will be full of self drive cars. Nobody will own a car, you'll just order it online and it'll be outside to take you to where you want.


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## Alex_225 (Feb 7, 2008)

Darlofan said:


> In reply to your are they that green point. Everything is green until
> a-scientists do new research and find out its not as first thought.
> b-The government lose tax because majority have swapped to it.
> 
> Anyway, we don't need to worry as 10yrs time roads will be full of self drive cars. Nobody will own a car, you'll just order it online and it'll be outside to take you to where you want.


That's cynical and sadly very true. You mean just like how diesels gained popularity for their green credentials, got lower tax and then we all got a telling off for buying diesels because they're not green enough?

Think you're onto something there!


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## St Evelyn (Mar 15, 2019)

As others have already said range anxiety is a real issue still.
Whilst my annual mileage has dropped from 35K to around 20K in the last few years (ignoring this year as that's been zero since mid-March), it doesn't change the fact that my relatives live in Scotland so I need to drive 335 miles every time we go to visit. Whilst there are charging points on the motorway, all too often I've seen the bays full or out of order when going past them. There's very few EVs out there that would get me home without a mid-journey recharge.

As Andy mentioned earlier, unless there's significant change to the EV tech (significantly increased range, shorter charge times, inductive charging whilst driving etc) then I can't see EVs being the final solution; hydrogen fuel cell cars are much more practical (fill up like an LPG car in next to no time) with a more 'normal' range. The challenge is that these have been around for years, but hydrogen is so explosive there have been very few places that brought in the storage tanks for it - and one that did (the Honda car factory in Swindon) is in the process of closing down.


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## andy665 (Nov 1, 2005)

Personally, I think REX vehicles are a real solution that no one other than GM and BMW have tried.

An EV with small ICE that automatically powers up to recharge the battery pack once a certain point has been reached in terms of % capacity. The ICE could be engineered to operate at maximum efficiency as it would have no physical connection with the driven wheels, there purely to recharge the batteries, The i3 RX and the Vauxhall Ampera did exactly that but neither used bespoke ICE, the i3 used a scooter engine, the Ampera used a conventional ICE.


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## Darlofan (Nov 24, 2010)

Alex_225 said:


> That's cynical and sadly very true. You mean just like how diesels gained popularity for their green credentials, got lower tax and then we all got a telling off for buying diesels because they're not green enough?
> 
> Think you're onto something there!


Exactly that.


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## President Swirl (Oct 23, 2011)

Tell me to get my foil-hat on if you like. This is the beginning of the end. Make a note in your diary when our last drop of freedom was taken from us. 22nd March 2020.
Since then it's been mandatory this and restricted that. Boris announced another restriction or ban today, as we've already been so softened and numbed that it just fades in to the backdrop. 
Road pricing? So a black box that can share Data and location with the appropriate bodies. "According to our data Sir / Madam, you were on a non-sanctioned stretch of road at 22:24 on the 8th of June. A fine has been added to your insurance. 
Thousands of perfectly good petrol and diesel cars that get easily topped-up ready for use, to be replaced by electric vehicles with no infrastructure to charge them. Live in a flat? Tough, walk or get 12 buses. Forget just popping out, forget anonymity, it's all over. 
This year will mark a turning-point. Anyone who has lost someone to this Terrible headline act has my heart and sympathies. 
N.B, the above is merely an opinion, expressed freely and I do not represent third parties. Despite the above, electric is one way forward, I'm just wary of the cost. Please stay safe people.


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## garage_dweller (Apr 10, 2018)

There will be plenty of used diesel and petrol cars you can still buy you know. 

And you know all those petrol stations that won’t be selling petrol, we’ll they’ll be in need of customers


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## andy665 (Nov 1, 2005)

President Swirl said:


> Tell me to get my foil-hat on if you like. This is the beginning of the end. Make a note in your diary when our last drop of freedom was taken from us. 22nd March 2020.
> Since then it's been mandatory this and restricted that. Boris announced another restriction or ban today, as we've already been so softened and numbed that it just fades in to the backdrop.
> Road pricing? So a black box that can share Data and location with the appropriate bodies. "According to our data Sir / Madam, you were on a non-sanctioned stretch of road at 22:24 on the 8th of June. A fine has been added to your insurance.
> Thousands of perfectly good petrol and diesel cars that get easily topped-up ready for use, to be replaced by electric vehicles with no infrastructure to charge them. Live in a flat? Tough, walk or get 12 buses. Forget just popping out, forget anonymity, it's all over.
> ...


Its still planned under EU regulations for all new cars sold from end of 2021 to be fitted with data loggers and speed limiters


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## TonyHill (Jul 28, 2015)

President Swirl is absolutely spot on with that comment :thumb::thumb:


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## Andyg_TSi (Sep 6, 2013)

As I understand it (please correct me if wrong) its the sale of new petrol or diesel fuelled cars only that wont be sold from 2030.

So it's going to be Hybrid or full electric only, so we will still have some form of new cars powered by fossil fuels, albeit with electric power.

Couple of things initially springing to mind:

1. Householders who have no driveway, but have front gardens ripe for converting into driveways should be given grants to aid with the cost of putting in a driveway, if they chose to, including costs of dropping kerbs etc

If you've gone to the trouble of buying a new car that will require charging, then its sensible to have a driveway (or dedicated parking space with charging point if you live in a flat/apartment)
The alternative is running charging cables from your house, across a public pavement to the car, if you lived in a typical semi, or quasi semi without a drive.
Plus how many people will be petty and cut your charging cable for having it across the pavement 

I can forsee a whole host of personal accident claim attempts against homeowners from other people tripping up over said charging cables for starters & a whole industry of "no win-no fee accident firms devoting a whole Industry to these claims.

Plus, in the longer term, its a possibility that a house without a driveway (and outdoor charging point for an EV) will be less attractive than one that does.

The grants can come from any funds going into putting the charging infrastructure into place, so its futureproofing homes as its going into charging points (and possibly helping with the plans to ban pavement parking)

This is being imposed on us, so its only fair that its done.

2. What about the tax take shortfall from VED, how will that be balanced - if its roadpricing (as in pay to drive on a per mile basis) will that apply to all, including petrol/diesel powered cars still on the road after 2030, or will it just apply to full electric/hybrid cars which will be either low VED, or VED exempt & registered after the date sales of new fossil fueled only cars are banned?


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## MrPassat (Mar 30, 2018)

Some good posts here and I agree with much of the content...just one more point tough. The capacity of the battery and therefore the car's range decreases over time and that is a worry to me. A car which may suit your lifestyle when it's new may not when it's a few years old.
Battery replacement would be mega expensive - assuming that is possible.


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## Caledoniandream (Oct 9, 2009)

EV is not the solution for the future, we will see more and more hydrogen, Aberdeen just installed several hydrogen fuel cell buses.
Hydrogen can be used for IC engines, there are so many options.
If we look at the first electric cars from not that long ago, the range has massively increased and continues to do so. 
If you look at the average mileage a car does in Britain, 250 miles range covers easy up to two weeks. 
Charge points will increase, seen it in other countries, seen it in for example Dundee, they have an 150 amp charger installed for the bin wagons (full electric) and the likes of electric Porsche’s 
We can call 100 million excuses for not been able to use one, but if there was no other option, people would make it work. 
I guess that in 20 years time a lot of people don’t own a car like they do now, there will be a lot “car on demand” where you only have a car when you need it, and could swap when the battery is empty for another one.
Or maybe swap the battery at former fuel stations, a bit how the industry works traction batteries for electric fork lifts, just drop the empty one and pick up the charged one, 4-5 minutes max?

We all think about EV’s as we see them now, but the technology moves so quick, just look back over the last 10 years.

By the way to comment about HGV’s polluting while using diesel, a New generation trucks with hybrid drive lines, LNG (liquid natural gas) and full electric are on their way.
Realise that truck were Euro 6 compliant a long time before most cars (2009)
And the last remark on that, it takes 20 trucks with semi trailers to fill the shelves in a large supermarket, it takes approx 2200 cars to empty it, what would been the most environmentally friendly?


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## TakDetails (Apr 25, 2020)

Seems the government need to sort out an efficient infrastructure which in all I think with how quick they want EV’s to be in the mainstream is just not long enough, this may take years longer than we know. 

When my time comes with an EV I don’t want to be queuing to use a charging station then waiting 30mins or less if they have super chargers - hate queuing for petrol/diesel just want to be in and out, 5mins done.

I just hope on the road to 2030 the government don’t fearmonger motorists with more taxes to force people go electric instead. It’s bad enough this drive per mile thing may be happening.

Also, the only EV car I like the look of is the Porsche Taycan and possibly the new Audi RS e-tron but currently their waaaayy out my budget even though as mentioned above a Corsa-e is £30k - no way would I pay that for a Corsa. 

Design teams really need to make the more of the “affordable” EV’s attractive too as most of them are really meh. 

I’ll also be doing 25k mi p/yr starting March (hopefully) how well will EV’s perform long term for those who do mega miles. 

All in all, I’d most likely stick with ICE or mild hybrid till the cost of those will not make sense anymore then I’ll be forced into an EV.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## kh904 (Dec 18, 2006)

Some great posts!

So is the 2030 ban for petrol & diesel cars going to be set in stone or is it a target?
10 years sounds like a long time to get the infrastructure in place (and better battery technology) but it really isn't.

From what I read somewhere, you can still purchase 2nd hand petrol/diesel cars after 2030, but aiming to ban petrol/diesel cars by 2050.


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## Gas head (May 28, 2010)

im just wondering how many cars will need to be recovered from the motorways and rural roads, because they have been stuck in traffic or by adverse weather conditions such as snow?
there is no infrastructure for all this charging of evs and by that i mean cables in the ground, primary and sub stations assuming we have the power generation, reasonable sized towns are already on the brink such as Rugby, I know this after dealing with western power and a new primary sub we gave the land for (this is mainly for new housing and not EV charging).
The range is not sufficient for 20% of users, and the recharge time not great, can just see companies paying for an hour or so downtime for their staff for this part way through their journey.
As for loss of tax, its already looking like road pricing is going to be the way.
also wondering whether it will create a new crime of stealing electricity from charging points?
just put a big hole in the classic car market unless they can be made to run on alternative fuels, good bye gto 250 ferraris etc.


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

> New petrol and diesel cars won't be sold in the UK from 2030.
> 
> The ban, originally set for 2040, was brought forward to 2035 earlier this year. Now it's been brought forward another 5 years. If you're concerned about how the ban could affect you, read our guide.
> 
> ...


https://www.confused.com/on-the-roa...tm_content=bulletin_-_petrol_and_diesel_ban_a

From the above more grants mean dealers get to keep the prices high but making it look like a good deal.


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## Alex_225 (Feb 7, 2008)

President Swirl said:


> Tell me to get my foil-hat on if you like. This is the beginning of the end. Make a note in your diary when our last drop of freedom was taken from us. 22nd March 2020.
> Since then it's been mandatory this and restricted that. Boris announced another restriction or ban today, as we've already been so softened and numbed that it just fades in to the backdrop.
> Road pricing? So a black box that can share Data and location with the appropriate bodies. "According to our data Sir / Madam, you were on a non-sanctioned stretch of road at 22:24 on the 8th of June. A fine has been added to your insurance.
> Thousands of perfectly good petrol and diesel cars that get easily topped-up ready for use, to be replaced by electric vehicles with no infrastructure to charge them. Live in a flat? Tough, walk or get 12 buses. Forget just popping out, forget anonymity, it's all over.
> ...


I think it's a very valid opinion though. Sadly people are quick to give up freedoms if they're convinced it's for their own good.

The concept of being tracked and automated fines should you break the speed limit whether by mistake or on purpose doesn't sit well. Of course the self righteous will go, 'Well don't break the speed limit' but we are human after all. Can't say I'll be fussed to buy a car that's made beyond 2021!


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## Caledoniandream (Oct 9, 2009)

President Swirl said:


> Tell me to get my foil-hat on if you like. This is the beginning of the end. Make a note in your diary when our last drop of freedom was taken from us. 22nd March 2020.
> Since then it's been mandatory this and restricted that. Boris announced another restriction or ban today, as we've already been so softened and numbed that it just fades in to the backdrop.
> Road pricing? So a black box that can share Data and location with the appropriate bodies. "According to our data Sir / Madam, you were on a non-sanctioned stretch of road at 22:24 on the 8th of June. A fine has been added to your insurance.
> Thousands of perfectly good petrol and diesel cars that get easily topped-up ready for use, to be replaced by electric vehicles with no infrastructure to charge them. Live in a flat? Tough, walk or get 12 buses. Forget just popping out, forget anonymity, it's all over.
> ...


Everybody has the right of his own opinion, but a lot of this above happened for quite a few years.
Unless you don't have a mobile phone, no bank and debit or credit cards, no permanent address and wear a daily different distinguishing you be tracked around 3 times a minute.

Even if you phone doesn't have GPS, triangle signal tracking of your phone signal gives your position inside a few square meters.

Every time you pay, you are tracked for your position, where you buy, and often what you buy.
If you pay for fuel, it's very easy to assume that you have a car.
There is the technology to link your face with your payment method, and your car registration.

And this is not science fiction, but a daily occurrence.
Ever thought how many times you get filmed in a day?
Either on private Cctv or public ones?

Do you know that the ECU in your car track how fast you drive and how hard you brake?
Link all above to it and you may as well have a spy sitting beside you.

In the hgv world is it quite common to link with a laptop to a vehicle that is actually not in the workshop.
JCB and Tesla track their vehicles to let you know when it need service, JCB actually knows that it will break down before you as operator know.

Electric vehicles are not changing anything to that, but probably we will get limiters come on, when there is heavy fog, an accident in front of you, or any other reason to keep you safe.
With the standard of driving nowadays, it can not come quick enough.


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## ollienoclue (Jan 30, 2017)

There will be no need for vehicle tracking or that big-brother nonsense. No need for road charging either.

Government can just tweak corporation or income tax etc can crank out another 30 billion tax elsewhere. Makes no difference. Road fuels are not the only source of tax revenues. About time corporation tax was sorted out, far too many people dodging that (and NI contributions) with the self-employed thing.


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## Berylburton (Sep 14, 2013)

ollienoclue said:


> There will be no need for vehicle tracking or that big-brother nonsense. No need for road charging either.
> 
> Government can just tweak corporation or income tax etc can crank out another 30 billion tax elsewhere. Makes no difference. Road fuels are not the only source of tax revenues. About time corporation tax was sorted out, far too many people dodging that (and NI contributions) with the self-employed thing.


Do you really think the people with their noses in the trough will sort the trough out? 
You have more faith in these people than me.


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## muzzer (Feb 13, 2011)

Caledoniandream said:


> Everybody has the right of his own opinion, but a lot of this above happened for quite a few years.
> Unless you don't have a mobile phone, no bank and debit or credit cards, no permanent address and wear a daily different distinguishing you be tracked around 3 times a minute.
> 
> Even if you phone doesn't have GPS, triangle signal tracking of your phone signal gives your position inside a few square meters.
> ...


I've tried to stay out of this one but i completely agree with this post. The warnings have been there for years and it might be silly or cliched, but i think it was Fast and Furious 6 where they are following the bad guys in London and Dwayne Johnson's character remarks "this is the most watched country in the world" or something along those lines to illustrate how many cameras are about.

This is nothing new and if all petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2050, that wont affect me as i will be 83 by that point and long stopped driving. But the question remains, how are they going to scrap how ever many millions of cars that are currently on the road?


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## andy665 (Nov 1, 2005)

muzzer said:


> I've tried to stay out of this one but i completely agree with this post. The warnings have been there for years and it might be silly or cliched, but i think it was Fast and Furious 6 where they are following the bad guys in London and Dwayne Johnson's character remarks "this is the most watched country in the world" or something along those lines to illustrate how many cameras are about.


I was at a conference a couple of years ago and was sat next to a senior person from John Deere. He told me that they remotely monitor all of the combine harvesters they sell, they know exactly where they are are, usage, type of usage, when they were fuelled etc etc, he said that it enables them to contact an owner and warn them of a potential problem before it becomes a problem- they argued the point on the basis that its very costly to have something like a combine harvester out of use and there systems help prevent this

I believe Rolls Royce have a facility in Derby that remotely monitors all of its jet engines as well

My belief is that if you are doing nothing wrong then you have nothing to worry about - as long as the data is secure - thats where I have my concerns


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## muzzer (Feb 13, 2011)

andy665 said:


> I was at a conference a couple of years ago and was sat next to a senior person from John Deere. He told me that they remotely monitor all of the combine harvesters they sell, they know exactly where they are are, usage, type of usage, when they were fuelled etc etc, he said that it enables them to contact an owner and warn them of a potential problem before it becomes a problem- they argued the point on the basis that its very costly to have something like a combine harvester out of use and there systems help prevent this
> 
> I believe Rolls Royce have a facility in Derby that remotely monitors all of its jet engines as well
> 
> My belief is that if you are doing nothing wrong then you have nothing ton worry about - as long as the data is secure - thats where I have my concerns


If it's a private company then most likely your data is secure, if it was a government department then i'd suggest that your data will already be in the hands of a telemarketing company - see the DVLA for example.


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## kh904 (Dec 18, 2006)

Well the banning of new petrol/diesel cars in 2030 has potentially thrown a spanner in my plans replacing my current car with a ULEZ compliant car.

I was looking to buy a used Audi A5 sportback (petrol) before Oct 2021 (when the ULEZ is expanded to the N/S circular in London). I don't really like the idea of spending say £20k on a car only for the value to drop like a rock and possibly being priced off the road in 10 years!

What sort of effect will this have on the car market for petrol motors?
I can see the taxes rocketing for petrol/diesel motors after 2030 and road pricing measures before then to make up the short fall of tax revenue.

A decent family sized electric car is currently not affordable for your average person and the infrastructure and battery technology isn't quite there yet.
Even a used electric car is a false economy at the moment as I would suspect the battery wouldn't be in great condition and would need to be replaced at the cost of thousands of £'s.

Out of curiosity, I looked at a used Tesla Model S, and they are all considerably out of my budget! 

I guess the mechanics and garages would need to retrain and invest in tools/equipment for electric cars too!


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## packard (Jun 8, 2009)

Prior to COVID I was all over auto trader tracking down “what next”, COVID has caused me with medical conditions to work from home. So the Diesel state with a range of 500 plus miles that can geneuinoey get 64 plus mpg most probably be a keeper for the next few years.

Living in Norfolk there is hardly any charge stations, and those ones we do have are at busy times always in use.

Totally agreeing with valid points but forward but what about some other things to consider.

When you go on holiday eg cottage, caravan (static) etc, we all hunt for WiFi, soon all many will care about us charge points..

Been told many of the sites won’t have the capacity or funds to install chargers

Still love to know where all the power comes from .....


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## Deathstar (Jan 13, 2013)

For us a two car household, at least one of our cars will be an EV in 3 years time. The wife drives 30 miles per day. I WFH, but need a combustion engine to tow. However beyond 2025 I feel the battery tech will have sufficiently improved to create enough density to allow EVs to tow a considerable distance. 
We also have to remember Hydrogen tech is still being developed and improved, so that will be another option. 
The technology to extract Hydrogen is also becoming less energy intensive, so that will help too. 

Look how far the tech has come in the last ten years, it’s not quite following Moore’s law, but improvements are almost yearly.


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

I wouldn't expect a ten year old anything from 2020/21 to have much value.

Battery packs can be refurbished as they are built using lots and lots of small cells; rebuilt to give a known capacity.

Actually lithium hasn't really moved much in the last 10 years when looking at capacity and power output. Cars that have gone from say 40kW to 50kW have done it with a bigger battery. The batteries did not become 25% more efficient.


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## Deathstar (Jan 13, 2013)

It’s not just the battery’s it’s the motors too that have become more efficient though the energy density has doubled over the past 10-12 years.
A 400kw motor 20 years ago would have weighed around 750kgs. 
The drives/controllers are also better. Just don’t look at the battery in isolation.


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

I have been "playing" with model helicopters for many years and have seen great strides in the electronics and brushless motors.

This Kontronik controller can handle 12.5kW and costs a cool £730 - https://www.kontronik.com/en/produc...eedcontroller1/kosmik/cool-kosmik-250-hv.html

When I started it was rare to see anything over 120Amps and motors were 4 or 5 kW. So yes you are correct that the electronics and motors have got better but the battery pack I started with back then does not deliver twice the power in the same form factor or weight. It is cheaper but it is larger and heavier.

An article I saw the other day seems to echo my view that it is the battery technology that is holding back electric vehicles.


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## suds (Apr 27, 2012)

Question for science bods re hydrogen powered vehicles - apparently they are lauded because they pretty much only emit water vapour? So cities like London will effectively become concrete rain forests due to the high humidity? Serious question hoping someone knows...


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## andy665 (Nov 1, 2005)

kh904 said:


> Well the banning of new petrol/diesel cars in 2030 has potentially thrown a spanner in my plans replacing my current car with a ULEZ compliant car.
> 
> I was looking to buy a used Audi A5 sportback (petrol) before Oct 2021 (when the ULEZ is expanded to the N/S circular in London). I don't really like the idea of spending say £20k on a car only for the value to drop like a rock and possibly being priced off the road in 10 years!
> 
> ...


In 2020 I certainly would not even consider what may happen in 10 years time, even if it goes according to plan petrol / diesel PHEVs will be on sale for another 5 years.

My gut feel is that values of petrol / diesel engined cars will probably not drop like a stone - but 10 years time its simply far too early to predict

Dealerships are already investing big time in electric equipment and training of staff and only likely to intensify, I'd say 40% of our work with PSA is on EV related training


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## ollienoclue (Jan 30, 2017)

andy665 said:


> I was at a conference a couple of years ago and was sat next to a senior person from John Deere. He told me that they remotely monitor all of the combine harvesters they sell, they know exactly where they are are, usage, type of usage, when they were fuelled etc etc, he said that it enables them to contact an owner and warn them of a potential problem before it becomes a problem- they argued the point on the basis that its very costly to have something like a combine harvester out of use and there systems help prevent this
> 
> I believe Rolls Royce have a facility in Derby that remotely monitors all of its jet engines as well
> 
> My belief is that if you are doing nothing wrong then you have nothing to worry about - as long as the data is secure - thats where I have my concerns


That technology- telematics has been commonly used in a lot of heavy equipment for years. Just need a modem on board that can use a mobile phone signal. Of course, it's only electronics and relies on sensors and can't actually diagnose anything an operator in the cab wouldn't notice first... I suspect the main reason manufacturers are interested in the technology is to 'capture' their customers and keen an eye on machines for reasons pertaining to warranties.


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## ollienoclue (Jan 30, 2017)

suds said:


> Question for science bods re hydrogen powered vehicles - apparently they are lauded because they pretty much only emit water vapour? So cities like London will effectively become concrete rain forests due to the high humidity? Serious question hoping someone knows...


The chemists will be along shortly I am sure.

Whatever way you look at it, hydrogen is a monumental pain in the chuff. Storing it, transporting it, using it: all problematic.

Yes, hydrogen can be burnt in plain air and create zero emissions (although water vapour is technically a greenhouse gas as well). However, there is fudge all energy in the bond between two hydrogen atoms and that is one of the reasons hydrocarbon fuels are so convenient. These products contain dozens of hydrogen atoms and dozens of chemical bonds in a liquid form which is readily stored without being too problematic. Hydrogen, at room temperature is a gas and that means compressing it and/or cooling it to the point you can store it in a liquid form if you want to carry any worthwhile amount of it around.

And that's not the main hurdle either. Actually obtaining the stuff is problematic as well. Oil and natural gas can be obtained from drilling into the Earth's crust. Hydrogen does not just collect in huge volumes waiting for us to discover and use it- it's generally very reactive and much prefers to be in some other form- like in water. So we have billions of gallons of hydrogen lying around but not in a form an engine can use.

There are ways of getting the hydrogen 'out of' water but few methods are that good because of the energy involved in doing so and as I just said above, as a fuel, hydrogen is pretty pants because of the energy on offer per unit volume.


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## Andy from Sandy (May 6, 2011)

Until the advent of wind or some other renewable power source I would say hydrogen production by the electrolysis of water would not of been cost effective. Sometime ago I remember writing that it takes about the same amount of power to get the hydrogen as the power the hydrogen can deliver making it very expensive.

Then I found this - https://www.carboncommentary.com/bl...her-building-block-for-the-low-carbon-economy


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## Deathstar (Jan 13, 2013)

That’s going to be key, regional/county hydrogen production via a low cost source of energy. 
The current method of fuel production is not sustainable with the transportation risks of Hydrogen due to the locations being essentially at the 4 points of a cross across the UK.


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## possul (Nov 14, 2008)

At the rate of what cars are costing at this moment in time I can't wait to see what something like a corsa will cost in ten years.

An electric car actually suits me more than my diesel for the mileage, But the only ones that look good for me are tesla model 3 (I priced one up on a lease £800+ per month with autopilot and nice paint)
Il stick with my 50+ mpg ****e saab diesel thanks.
Be on 400k miles if I carry on polluting the plantet till 2030!

Tax payers will be covering all the cost's and road tax will change away from emissions to keep charging electric drivers (always going to happen)


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## SteveW (Feb 21, 2006)

I've only just bought a new (to me, was 4.5 years old) car in June this year - and given that I've kept the last two cars I've owned for 6 and 8 years respectively, it's entirely possible that I will only be buying one more car before the ban comes in in 2030.

That may well be the last car I ever "buy" outright. I think if I HAD to buy an EV I'd seriously look at leasing at that point and work out the costs. I do worry about buying a used EV, but I guess realistically I'm looking at 2035ish before I'll be in that position - so there will be a lot more knowledge and information on the used EV market by then, so it could all change.


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